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Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership (RSTRF)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered solid top-line and profit growth: Total revenues $2.45B (+6.9% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $794M (+6.0% YoY), Adjusted EPS $1.03 (+10.7% YoY), and organic AOI growth +8.8% YoY, keeping RBI on track for “at least 8%” organic AOI growth in 2025 .
  • Strength was led by Tim Hortons and International (INTL): TH AOI +$19M YoY to $304M and INTL AOI +$24M YoY to $189M; CEO Kobza highlighted momentum at TH/INTL, which together represent ~70% of earnings .
  • Burger King U.S. posted positive comps (+3.2%) amid ongoing “Reclaim the Flame”; funding toward Royal Reset reached $160M of up to $550M by Q3-end .
  • Pressures: Popeyes comps remained negative (-2.4% total, -2.0% U.S.) and Restaurant Holdings (Carrols BK + PLK China + FHS Brazil) AOI fell to $10M (from $16M) on higher beef and wage costs; management also cited higher ad contribution rates flowing through RH .
  • Guidance: FY2025 Segment G&A, RH G&A, and Adjusted Interest Expense unchanged; Total Capex & Cash Inducements trimmed to “around $400M” (from $400–$450M in Q2). Dividend maintained at $0.62 for Q4 (payable Jan 6, 2026; record Dec 23, 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Comparable sales accelerated to +4.0% consolidated, led by BK International +6.4% and TH Canada +4.2%; system-wide sales growth reached +6.9% (+12.1% INTL) .
  • TH and INTL profitability improved: TH AOI rose to $304M (+$19M YoY) on higher revenues and lower Segment G&A; INTL AOI rose to $189M (+$24M YoY) driven by higher royalties and lower G&A (ex-FX) .
  • CEO tone constructive: “strong quarter…momentum from Tim Hortons and International…franchisees more aligned than ever…firmly on track to deliver at least 8% organic Adjusted Operating Income growth this year” .

What Went Wrong

  • Popeyes softness persisted: Comparable sales -2.4% (U.S. -2.0%); AOI roughly flat at $63M (+$1M YoY) despite ad rate increases .
  • RH margin pressure: RH AOI fell to $10M (from $16M) as higher beef and wages offset revenue growth; ad/tech fees also rose with higher contribution rates .
  • Growth deceleration in unit expansion: Consolidated Net Restaurant Growth was 2.8% vs 3.8% last year; INTL net restaurant growth slowed to 5.1% from 7.6% .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$2,291 $2,410 $2,449
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$577 $483 $663
Net Income from Continuing Operations ($USD Millions)$357 $264 $440
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops ($)$0.79 $0.58 $0.96
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$748 $762 $794
Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) ($USD Millions)$652 $668 $702
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.93 $0.94 $1.03
Adjusted EBITDA Margin % (Adj EBITDA/Revenue)32.7% (748/2,291) 31.6% (762/2,410) 32.4% (794/2,449)

Notes: Margins are computed from reported figures; sources cited for numerator and denominator.

Segment Financials (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

SegmentTotal Revenues Q3’24 ($M)Total Revenues Q3’25 ($M)AOI Q3’24 ($M)AOI Q3’25 ($M)
Tim Hortons (TH)$1,044 $1,125 $284 $304
Burger King (BK)$362 $387 $112 $123
Popeyes (PLK)$195 $201 $62 $63
Firehouse Subs (FHS)$53 $60 $12 $14
International (INTL)$243 $268 $166 $189
Restaurant Holdings (RH)$441 $459 $16 $10

Key KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
System-wide Sales ($USD Billions)$11.43 $11.85 $12.28
System-wide Sales Growth YoY+3.2% +5.3% +6.9%
Comparable Sales (Consolidated)+0.3% +2.4% +4.0%
BK International Comparable Sales+1.9% +4.1% +6.4%
TH Canada Comparable Sales+2.7% +3.6% +4.2%
BK U.S. Comparable Sales(0.4)% +1.5% +3.2%
PLK U.S. Comparable Sales(3.8)% (0.9)% (2.0)%
FHS U.S. Comparable Sales(5.2)% (1.1)% +2.5%
Net Restaurant Growth (Consolidated)3.8% 2.9% 2.8%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 2025)Current Guidance (Q3 2025)Change
Segment G&A (ex-RH)FY2025$600–$620M $600–$620M Maintained
RH Segment G&AFY2025≈$100M ≈$100M Maintained
Adjusted Interest Expense (net)FY2025≈$520M ≈$520M Maintained
Total Capex & Cash InducementsFY2025$400–$450M ≈$400M Lowered (tightened)
DividendQ4 2025—$0.62; Payable Jan 6, 2026; Record Dec 23, 2025 Declared/maintained run-rate

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in our document set; themes below draw from management’s press release and segment commentary. We will update when the transcript is published .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
International momentumINTL system-wide sales growth +9.3% (1H); AOI +$8M in Q2 on higher royalties and lower G&A, ex-FX INTL system-wide sales growth +12.1%; AOI +$24M YoY to $189M on higher royalties and lower G&A, ex-FX Improving
Tim Hortons performanceTH AOI up in Q2; positive comps; lower Segment G&A aided margins TH comps +4.2% (Canada +4.2%); AOI +$19M YoY to $304M Improving
BK U.S. “Reclaim the Flame”Funding progress: $152M of up to $550M as of Q2; ad rate increased to 4.5% in 2025 Funding reached $160M by Q3; BK U.S. comps +3.2% Improving
Commodity/wage pressureQ2 noted net bad debt expenses and convention timing in parts of the system RH AOI down on higher beef costs and wages; higher ad contributions also weighed Pressured
China portfolio actionsBK China acquired and held for sale; removed from INTL segment results in 2025 Treatment unchanged: BK China in discontinued ops; KPIs remain in INTL KPIs Stable

Management Commentary

  • CEO Josh Kobza: “Our teams delivered a strong quarter, driven by momentum from Tim Hortons and our International business, which together generate roughly 70% of our earnings… Burger King also had a great quarter… [we are] firmly on track to deliver at least 8% organic Adjusted Operating Income growth this year.”
  • Reclaim the Flame status: “Fuel the Flame” investments completed in Q4 2024; as of Sep 30, 2025, $160M funded of up to $550M “Royal Reset” .
  • Strategy on China: BK China classified as held for sale and reported in discontinued ops; KPIs remain in INTL KPI disclosures as RBI seeks a new controlling shareholder .

Q&A Highlights

  • A Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the documents retrieved; therefore, Q&A themes, guidance clarifications, and tone shifts cannot be summarized at this time. We will update this section upon availability of the transcript .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025. Consensus EPS and revenue estimates were not available via our feed for this period; therefore, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Street estimates. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Actuals: Total revenues $2.449B; Diluted EPS (cont. ops) $0.96; Adjusted EPS $1.03 . Given organic AOI growth of +8.8% and reiterated “8%+” FY target, models assuming below ~8% organic AOI may need upward calibration, while RH margin pressures and PLK comps may temper out-year flow-through .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core engine firing: TH and INTL continue to drive earnings, with INTL AOI +14% and TH AOI +7% YoY, supporting consolidated AOI +7.6% and organic AOI +8.8% in Q3 .
  • BK U.S. execution improving: +3.2% comps and continued Royal Reset funding ($160M of up to $550M) point to ongoing sales and unit economics progress into 2026 .
  • Watch RH margin headwinds: Beef inflation and wage pressure reduced RH AOI ($10M vs $16M YoY); until refranchising progresses, RH could remain a swing factor for consolidated optics .
  • Popeyes needs re-acceleration: Negative comps (-2.4%; U.S. -2.0%) persisted; stabilization and new product newsflow will be important to arrest drag on segment momentum .
  • FY guide steady; capex tightened: Segment G&A, RH G&A, and Adjusted Interest maintained; Total Capex & Cash Inducements trimmed to ≈$400M, underscoring capital discipline while funding remodels/digital .
  • Capital return intact: $0.62 Q4 dividend declared; leverage improved to 4.4x (from 4.8x) on LTM Adj. EBITDA basis, preserving flexibility alongside debt reduction focus .
  • Near-term trading setup: Positive comps and AOI momentum vs. RH cost pressure and PLK softness; absent Street consensus, focus likely on INTL/TH strength and BK U.S. comp trajectory as catalysts into Q4 .